What return can you expect?

The expected return in the Rootree simulator is set to 8% per year by default.

That figure is meant to be a simple starting point. It helps you explore how wealth could grow over time when you continue investing regularly.

But 8% is not a promise. It is not a prediction for next year. And it certainly does not mean your portfolio will rise neatly by 8% every year.

Stock markets do not move calmly in a straight line. Some years are very positive. Other years are negative. Sometimes little happens for years, and then a lot happens all at once.

The long-term average only appears afterwards, over many years. As an investor, you do not experience the average. You experience the individual years.

That difference matters. If you expect investing to feel roughly the same every year, temporary market declines can feel much more unsettling.

The MSCI World Index is one of the most widely used benchmarks for the global stock market.

The index follows more than one thousand large and mid-sized companies across 23 developed countries. Think of companies from the United States, Japan, Canada and several European countries.

Despite its name, the MSCI World does not represent the entire world. Companies from emerging markets, such as China and India, are not included. US companies also make up a large share of the index today.

You cannot buy the index itself directly. But there are ETFs that try to follow the MSCI World as closely as possible.

A stock can generate return in two ways. Its price can rise, and the company can pay dividends.

The historical figures below assume those dividends are reinvested. That matters, because dividends have been a meaningful part of total returns over time.

For the figures below, we use the MSCI World in euros, including reinvested dividends. A standard withholding on dividends is already reflected in the calculation. Yes, those are slightly technical terms. Fortunately, you do not need to remember all of them. The important point is that these figures aim to provide a fair picture of the index’s historical return.

When we look at individual calendar years, returns can vary significantly. Some years are exceptionally strong, while others are clearly negative.

When you look at the chart, one thing stands out immediately: almost no year lands neatly on the long-term average. Some years the market rises sharply. Other years it falls hard. That is normal.

That is exactly why long-term investing can sometimes feel difficult. You never experience the average year. You experience good years, bad years and everything in between.

The long-term average only appears afterwards, when all those years are looked at together.

When we stop looking at individual years and consider longer periods instead, a different picture emerges.

Measured through June 30, 2026, in euros and including reinvested dividends. The figures are before inflation and before personal costs and taxes. For this specific euro-denominated series, reliable data was available from the end of 1998. That is why an exact 30-year period is not shown.

Rootree does not use 8% because the stock market rises by 8% every year.

We use it because it is a simple, rounded assumption that fits within what broadly diversified stocks have historically returned over long periods.

That does not mean you will actually earn 8%. As the table shows, the average can differ significantly depending on the period you examine.

The 8% figure is also before inflation, taxes and costs. It is a tool for looking ahead, not a prediction of what your investments will actually return.

A difference of a few percentage points can look small when you only look at one year. Over decades, that difference becomes much more meaningful.

That is why the simulator also shows a more cautious and a more optimistic scenario. Not to predict the future, but to show how sensitive your final result is to the assumed return.

That makes the simulation more honest. You do not see only one attractive line, but also how wide the possible outcomes can become.

Historical returns can differ substantially depending on the period you examine. The last 10 years, for example, were much stronger than the average since the end of 1998.

Still, a simulator needs one central starting point. That is why Rootree uses 8% per year by default.

No one knows what return the stock market will deliver over the coming years. Rootree does not know either. What Rootree can do is help you understand how time, regular investing and different returns could affect your long-term outcome.

Do not use that 8% as a promise. Use it as a guide.